Monday, June 30, 2008

New International Census Data

IPUMS has posted a set of new international census datasets. Here's a description of what's new there.
The data release includes 9 new countries -- Austria, Canada, Egypt, Ghana, Iraq, Malaysia, Netherlands, Panama, and United Kingdom -- as well as additional samples for China, Colombia, Mexico, United States, and Venezuela. The data series now contains 263 million person records from 111 censuses in 35 countries.

In addition to adding more samples, we have constructed location-of-mother and location-of- father data for all samples in the
data series. The parental locators identify the record number within the household of each person's mother or father.
It kind of blows my mind what IPUMS is doing. If you go there, peruse the data they've made electronically available. It's a ton of Census for the US, going back to the 19th century at least, as well as the Current Population Survey, some health surveys, and international census. A tremendous public good, for which I wish they could get some kind of award.

I've never dug into any of the international datasets on here, but I just noticed that they have Rwanda in 1991 and 2002 which would seem to let you get comprehensive information about the effects of the genocide, which occurred in 1994.

Theology and Battlestar Gallactica

I'm really late to the game, because I only started watching Battlestar Gallactica last week, and thus am only on disk four of season one. But, the theological discourse in the show is pretty explicit, and kind of caught me off guard, as I'm sure it did everyone else. Beliefnet wrote about it a while back. It has spoilers so I quite after the first page. But apparently, it's not so much orthodox Christianity, but specifically Mormonism, that is embedded in the show. That's kind of fascinating; I can't think of another popular story that so successful drew our Mormon beliefs. I'm eager to see where they take it.

Fred

J sent me the following two links (here and here) on Fred, whose videos on youtube are becoming really popular. The LA Times article says he's being paid "generously" for his product placements, and I wonder how much that is. He's promoting something called the zipit, which is apparently a texting device that has become really popular among parents. I kind of wanted one when I saw this, and especially after learning mid-season that the price had dropped on them (he complains in one episode because Kevin bought his zipit after the price reduction, but Fred before, which wasn't fair! It reminded me of the iPhone complaints).

I can't remember at all how I found this guy - oh yeah, it was some economist blogging and making a note of the product placement in one of the episodes, noting that in the future, product placements would be the actual entertainment, and not merely distracting incidentals to some story. That is one thing that is such a riot about Fred's shows, for sure. But I also love everything about it, and the videos that J sent me pointed out that the target audience appears to be little kids, not grown men like me. Below is one of my favorite episodes, entitled "Fred Loses His Meds" that kind of epitomizes who this kid is. I love the line at the beginning where he says, "If you're wondering why I'm acting rather extraordinary it's because I've lost my medication!!"

Update. Ho. Ly. Crap. Read about the payment structure associated with creating viral videos. This kid from Nebraska is awesome. How cool is it that the Internet creates these kinds of economic opportunities for some random kid in a small town in Nebraska? Real talent (and I'll hit you if you say otherwise) can be identified and value created at so much lower cost now.

Why Poetry Matters

Yet poetry can make a difference in the lives of readers. I've always known that myself, having read and written poems for at least four decades. Every morning I begin the day with a book of poems open at the breakfast table. I read a poem, perhaps two. I think about the poetry. I often make notes in my journal. The reading of the poem informs my day, adds brightness to my step, creates shades of feeling that formerly had been unavailable to me. In many cases, I remember lines, whole passages, that float in my head all day — snatches of song, as it were. I firmly believe my life would be infinitely poorer without poetry, its music, its deep wisdom.
He's right about this. I wish I still read poetry daily, but I haven't since before grad school, and that was six years ago. I also used to read the Bible daily, and I think a lot of what he says here can be extended to that too. I'm sure there's a lot of things we desperately need like poetry and God's word which we just can't seem to fit into our lives anymore, but which leave us feeling impoverished nonetheless. Those two are my personal two, though.

Quantum of Solace Trailer UP

My son has one criteria for a good story. Does it have any killing? Well son, I stand here telling you that the new 007 does indeed have some killing, making it climb to the top of his list of Movies-I-Want-to-Desperately-See-But-Which-I-Cannot-Because-I-am-a-six-year-old. Seriously, I'm totally digging the new Bourne-inspired James Bond franchise. I am not one of the ones who liked the old style Bond, with the martinis and the womanizing. I did like the Casino Royale reboot ALOT, because I was one of those who discovered he loves espionage straight more than espionage camp when I met Jason Bourne. I think the success of the Bourne franchise showed the proprietors of the James Bond franchise how if they just tweaked the formula, they too could make millions more - they'd keep their fan base, then get people like me from the Bourne fan base. Win-win-lose (for Bourne). Quantum of Solace continues in the reboot Bond fashion, as far as I can tell. AND... I just realized "Jason Bourne" and "James Bond" have the same initials, fwiw.

Hubble


Kottke links to a great Harvard magazine piece on what we got from Hubble. What an amazing public good Hubble turned out to be.

Movie Weekend

Wall-E had a big opening weekend - a little over $62 million. That's not as good as Finding Nemo ($70 million) or The Incredibles ($70+ million) did, and nowhere near as good as Toy Story 2 ($80 million), but it's slightly better than Cars ($60 million) and Ratatouille ($47 million). This will at least partially satisfy this investor in Disney. I'd say this is an average opening for Pixar, statistically and historically speaking. But Tyler predicted a steep second week decline for this movie once word of mouth gets around about it, and kids start telling their friends what it's like. So what can we expect?

1. Toy Story fell 30% from week 1.
2. Toy Story 2 fell 52%.
3. Bug's Life fell 48%.
4. Monster's, Inc., fell 27%.
5. Finding Nemo fell fell 34%.
6. The Incredibles fell 29%.
7. Ratatouille fell 38%.
8. Cars fell 44%.

So for these eight Pixar films, the average decline after the first weekend (more or less) was around 38%, with the worst decline being Toy Story 2, but that's partly because it had such a huge opening weekend at $80 million. I think the two Pixar movies people associate with being financially disappointing was Ratatouille ($206 million domestically), and maybe Bug's Life ($160 million - but without adjustments for inflation...), so maybe if it declines in the ballpark of those 2 (38% and 48%, respectively). The worst case scenario is it shows Matrix Reloaded declines. It opened huge at over $90 million, then fell off almost 60% due to poor reviews and word of mouth.

My suspicion is Tyler's right, and that it'll probably show declines in the 45% range. I think that's like a Cars performance, in other words. Wall-E has this E.T. thing going on for it - a cute robot and outer space - which, plus being Pixar, almost guarantees a strong opening weekend. That is why it's different from Ratatouille, which was about gourmet cooking and a ghost chef who teaches a rat to follow his dreams into the kitchen. While brilliant, it didn't really pretend to be anything other than a, for lack of a better word, sophisticated film, but Wall-E feels perhaps more like a subterfuge. Kids will go in the opening weekend, but not the second weekend, because in the first weekend one can imagine kids wanting to see the robot and the space story, but when they learn it's not so much about either of those things, as much as it is a silent film era romance, they'll probably not show up in week 2. So I'm going to put it at 45%, maybe even 50%. I'm going to stake out a 50% decline for the second weekend, actually. Kind of bold prediction, but I'm going with it.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Vaynerchuk and Co-Host

A decent episode. He scores 3 of the 4 wines at 90+, and all were reds. The Callabriga Duoro 2004 was only 15 bones, making it the better buy since it had the same score as the last two, which were more expensive. The last one, though, seemed to get more energy from both of them, and it too was the one you could keep for 8-12 years, so maybe it's the better longterm investment (though I've never kept wine for more than a day).


Freaks and Geeks

Hah, Clever title. I just now got it. "Freaks" as in "Freakonomics." Very funny. Anyway, hat tip to MP for sending this my way. I hadn't read it in over a year, but it reads well again. I encourage anyone interested in how Steve Levitt fits in the history of economic thought to read it. I think it explains really well what is going on, more generally, in applied microeconomics, and how some of the "identification" stuff has probably jumped the shark by now, but most of us (assistant professors mostly) are paying the price of still having to meet those expectations. Actually, I'm torn on the whole thing. One of the things that makes microeconomics different from sociology or political science is, I believe, the emphasis placed on separating causality from mere correlation. But the problem is that given that most trials are really just observational data, we can't actually do random experiments, so to separate causal mechanisms from merely correlated random variables, we have to exploit randomness in the real world to do the randomized treatments for us. That's kind of interesting when you sit and reflect on it, but as the article points out, there's really only so many questions you can answer this way. There's only so many mistakes made by an agency that accidentally assigned education to someone non-deserving, for instance, or other kinds of weird quirks that help make these assignments for you. But, God forbid you actually try to present a paper to people without identification. I was eaten alive during one talk, early on, because my job market paper (well before going on the job market, actually) had dubious identification. I had given so much thought to the actual question, and the importance of the question, and the model motivating the problem, that the empirics always seemed like an afterthought. That's not good, I know, and I learned and changed through the experience how important it was to think more carefully about the econometrics, but at the time, it was really frustrating since then, and now, I thought to myself, "There is no identification for this other than what I'm doing." Anyway, that may sound like gobblygoop, but I encourage you to read it if you're curious.

Psychopath?

HT to MP.


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Friday, June 27, 2008

Unfair Advantages

Kottke's got an interesting post here.
The Olympic starting gun gives the runners on the inside of the track (near the gun) an unfair advantage because the sound reaches the outer lanes later and the loud bang scares inside-lane runners out of the blocks earlier.
Runners in lane eight got off the mark on average about 150 milliseconds after runners in lane one, Dapena found. A time delay of that magnitude translates to about a metre's difference at the finish line.
I wonder if the lineup is randomly or alphabetical or what. In theory, should be able to test the degree to which this matters.

Blasphemy

I'm with Kottke on this one. The guy at NY Magazine ranks Pixar films from best to least best like so:
1. Monsters, Inc.
2. Finding Nemo
3. Toy Story 2
4. Ratatouille
5. Toy Story
6. A Bug's Life
7. The Incredibles
8. Cars
So rather than give him a stern talking to, I'll just give you the Pomeroy Kinsey list below.
1. Finding Nemo
2. The Incredibles
3. Toy Story 2
4. Ratatouille
5. Toy Story
6. Monsters, Inc.
7. Cars
8. A Bug's Life
It took all my strength not to put The Incredibles in the first slot, but I couldn't. Finding Nemo is really a masterpiece, so it gets #1. And I really loved Ratatouille, but I personally prefer Toy Story 2. What's your ordering?

Video Games Rot Your Brain

I wish I was kidding. But Blattman points us to this BE Press paper, "The Causal Effect of Studying on Academic Performance" by
Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd R. Stinebrickner. The paper was also the recipient of the BE Press's Arrow Prize. Here's the provocative finding: being assigned (randomly) to a roommate who brings to college a video game lowers first semester GPA by an amount that is equal to a standard deviation decrease in the student's own ACT score. Ouch.

Gun Control

Randy Barnett over at Volokh asks the question that is going to be fought out in state supreme courts across the land from here on out: what regulations are legitimate and what ones aren't?
SO WHAT GUN REGULATIONS ARE REASONABLE? Perhaps the question most commonly asked by reporters about yesterday's decision in Heller, is how it will affect the constitutionality of other gun laws. I believe Justice Scalia signaled that regulations short of a ban should be scrutinized the way we do "time, place, and manner" regulations of speech when he equated the Second Amendment with the First: "There seems to us no doubt, on the basis of both text and history, that the Second Amendment conferred an individual right to keep and bear arms. Of course the right was not unlimited, just as the First Amendment’s right of free speech was not."
One thing is sure - I think Heller is going to give us a chance to answer some lingering empirical questions related to the effects of gun control laws on crime. Heller is going to force changes in state-level gun control laws, liberalizing them in favor of more guns, and we'll treat that change as exogenous since it's driven by SCOTUS and not state-level unobservable variables. Maybe it will help settle some controversial findings from the 1990s.

Wanted Looks Good (part deux)

Ebert gives it a decent rating of 3 stars, so I'll definitely be seeing it. I actually wasn't crazy about the original Mark Millar comic, but only because it was so extreme and honest in its violence. Imagine a world with super heroes and super villains, but the super villains end up winning and killing all the heroes, then fast forward 20 years. That's Wanted, the original Millar book. Well, what I never realized until I read that book was that villains, even super villains, are horrible, abominations, and without the heroes to stop them, they would the ability to satisfy any of their desires. And guess what, they're super villains, and so by definition their preference suck. It's full of rape, murders, random acts of violence, you name it. And as it is now available in graphic novel, when you read it all at once, it was kind of a lot to take. It sounds like they kept some of the basic violent elements, and the dark villain, anti-hero, stuff, in this adaptation, but lost the super villain stuff and replaced it with just an assassin's guild. Nevertheless, Ebert's review is funny. He realizes what the movie and isn't, and gets the genre, but still takes the movie to task in the end.
“Wanted,” directed by a hot Russian actionmeister named Timur Bekmambetov, is a film entire lacking in two organs I always appreciate in a movie: a heart and a mind. It is mindless, heartless, preposterous. By the end of the film, we can’t even believe the values the plot seems to believe, since the plot is deceived right along with us. The way to enjoy this film is to put your logic on hold, along with any higher sensitivities that might be vulnerable and immerse yourself as if in a video game. That “Wanted” will someday be a video game, I have not the slightest doubt. It may already be a video game, but I’m damned if I’ll look it up and find out. Objectively, I award it all honors for technical excellence. Subjectively, I’d rather be watching Danny Kaye in the film version of “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.”

NYT on Rising HIV

NYT covers the recent CDC report showing rising HIV among gay males, and especially Blacks. Ends with a provocative paragraph.
“Because of the new treatments [for HIV-positive patients], some men perceive it to be a less severe disease than it once was,” he said. “And this is a new generation that hasn’t been personally affected in the same way that older men have been.”
We're hearing more and more about this plausible story - that the unintended side effect to making AIDS less dangerous is certain forms of compensating behaviors, like increased risky sex of various sorts (fewer condoms worn, more partners, etc.).

Domestic Violence and Social Externalities

Another interesting paper by Scott Carrell (UCDavis) and Mark Hoestra (Pitt). The methodology is familiar if you've seen their other papers - peer effects with careful identification using quasi-random assignment. The title of the paper is "Externalities in the Classroom: How Domestic Violence Harms Everyone's Kids." Here's the abstract.
It is estimated that between ten and twenty percent of children in the United States are exposed to domestic violence annually. While much is known about the impact of domestic violence and other family problems on children within the home, little is known regarding the extent to which these problems spill over children outside the family. The widespread perception among parents and school officials is that these externalities are significant, though measuring them is difficult due to data and methodological limitations. We estimate the negative spillovers caused by children from troubled families by exploiting a unique data set in which children’s school records are matched to domestic violence cases filed by their parent. To overcome selection bias, we identify the effects using the idiosyncratic variation in peers from troubled families within the same school and grade over time. We find that children from troubled families significantly decrease their peers’ reading and math test scores and significantly increase misbehavior by others in the classroom. The effects are heterogeneous across income, race, and gender and appear to work primarily through troubled boys. The results are robust to within-sibling differences and we find no evidence that non-random selection is driving the results. The presence of these externalities suggests that to the extent that education policy increases a group’s exposure to children from troubled families, student performance will be affected in a negative way. Furthermore, the results are also relevant for social policy in that they provide for a more complete accounting of the social costs of family conflict.

McCain's Captor Speaks

Amazing. John McCain's captor while he was imprisoned in Vietnam says they never tortured him (because the Vietnamese never tortured anyone, he said). But he seemed to come close to endorsing his campaign for President. That's kind of incredible.

More Wall-E Good News

Fr. Roger gives it 3 1/2 stars. He writes:
After “Kung Fu Panda,” I thought I had just about exhausted my emergency supply of childlike credulity, but here is a film, like “Finding Nemo,” that you can enjoy even if you’ve grown up.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Drop

From Michael Gondry's list of top 25 music videos of all time.
The Pharcyde, ''Drop'' (1996)
Yet another Spike Jonze joint, this one consists of footage of the L.A. hip-hoppers performing backwards. The Beastie Boys also make a cameo. ''There's sort of a softness in it that's really nice,'' says Gondry.


Scott Likes

A.O. Scott that is. His Wall-E review at the NYT is up, and as the kids are saying, it's dope. Scott makes comparisons to Chaplin and 2001, which I'm hearing a lot. He mentions that it's almost wordless, or if not wordless, almost having no dialogue. So this is the Passion of the Christ of the Pixar canon maybe (though no Aramaic in this one, either). Let's hope it is as successful. Here's some nice sentences from the review.
Wall-E’s tender regard for the material artifacts of a lost civilization is understandable. After all, he too is a product of human ingenuity. And the genius of “Wall-E,” which was directed by the Pixar mainstay Andrew Stanton, who wrote the screenplay with Jim Reardon, lies in its notion that creativity and self-destruction are sides of the same coin. The human species was driven off its home planet — Wall-E eventually learns that we did not die out — by an economy consecrated to the manufacture and consumption of ever more stuff. But some of that stuff turned out to be useful, interesting, and precious. And some of it may even possess something like a soul.
I like that last part - "some of it may even possess something like a soul." Like the Pixar films possess soul? Seriously, don't they? I can't wait to see it. I will be dragging my son to see it, though I will have to forewarn him that there is very little killing in it more than likely. He's a purist, and has been known to veto a story on the sub-par killing criteria alone.

HT to JB.

My New Crush

The new Lil Wayne album is nice, and growing on me more and more each day. I especially am stuck on this song, "Mrs. Officer." It's been in my head all day. Very funky, almost George Clinton in some places. Warning, though: the hook will never leave your brain. Wee-oh-wee-oh-wee!!!

"Crappy"

I loved it when about 3 minutes in, he calls the wine "crappy". That's right - "crappy," with hand-gestured scare quotes. Check out this beautiful, fan mashup of Gary and his now classic Internet show. Seriously, this guy is the Roger Ebert of wine critic - humane, authentic, descriptive/observant, passionate, and with the ability to connect the experience of drinking wine into the heart and palette of ordinary people. I give him two thumbs way up. My wife and I are slowly working our way through his almost 500 large catalog (4 down, 496 to go). Thanks to J for the headsup.

Method Man

J's link to that Wu Tang Clan interview put Wu Tang on my mind. Here's classic Method Man.



HIV Rising Among Gay American Males

More on the resurgence of HIV among men who have sex with men.
Between 2001 and 2006, male-to-male sex was the largest HIV transmission category in the U.S., and the only one associated with an increasing number of HIV/AIDS diagnoses, according to a report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The jump was highest — an increase of 12.4 percent — among boys and men between the ages of 13 and 24 years who had sex with other males, particularly among ethnic minorities.

Obama Totally Disses Scarlet Johansson

He's not really into her anymore. Diss!

"Another Kind of Creativity" - Landsburg

Tyler linked to a new blog entitled Creative Capitalism: A Conversation. It's a collective blog by economists for the most part as they blog and interact with an interview with Bill Gates (Microsoft Bill Gates, that is) on the concept of "creative capitalism," which is to say, corporations doing more philanthropic work. Gates, I think, is making the argument that corporations can do philanthropy better than states (more efficiently, but maybe more than that). The other bloggers take turns responding to this interview.

So far, I've only skimmed Richard Posner and Ed Glaeser's response, and read Steven Landsburg's in its entirety. I liked Landsburg's piece, and here was one paragraph that I thought captured much of what he was saying in response to Gates (who I've not read yet):
Bottom line re eradicating poverty: Capitalism is indispensable; health and education measures can help. If creative capitalism discourages the accumulation of capital ---either directly, or, as Bill points out, by dampening enthusiasm for traditional capitalism---then it’s surely counterproductive.
So put Landsburg strictly in the Milton Friedman camp, which sees the maximization of profits as the only moral responsibility of the firm. He's not the only person on the list who takes that position - Posner seemed to take a similar one, based on my skimming. I look forward to reading more of these. It will ultimately be collected into a volume, according to Tyler, making this the first academic blog conference (right?). Or at least one of the first. Pretty interesting model, and I hope it catches on. If they do publish it, though, what will they do with the comments?

Lookwell

I just learned about this old TV pilot that never aired, but became popular ex post. Here's what Wikipedia says about it.
Lookwell was a television pilot written and produced by Conan O'Brien and Robert Smigel. It starred Adam West as a washed-up TV action hero—who at the peak of his career was ceremoniously deputized by local law enforcement—who falsely believes he can solve crimes in real life. The pilot was broadcast on NBC in July 1991 but was not picked up as a series.


New Fred Video

Kobe-Shaq and Bitterness

I'm the kind of person for whom it has been said, "to a child with a hammer, everything is a nail." What I mean is that sometimes my mind, body and heart get really tangled up into knots, at which point, if I'm lucky, something will come along serendipitously to fix it. One time, a long time ago, I came across a really helpful, pastoral letter on bitterness that really, honestly changed my life. I make the mistake, though, sometimes of thinking the substance of the essay is the appropriate solution to anyone else suffering from similar problems to what I once felt.

So, with that caveat in mind, I wonder if Kobe and Shaq aren't bitter towards one another. Bitterness is an interesting state of mind, because unlike hatred or mere anger, bitterness is proportional to the amount of strong, positive feelings that were once there, or maybe still are there. When a friend betrays us, we grow bitter. When a stranger attacks us, we become angry. The difference is that with bitterness (going to that pastoral letter), I think there is a tendency to rehearse the violation over and over in one's mind. Since memory is flawed, maybe it's not perfect, but it's nonetheless reviewed so much that it feels like the violation is on some kind of mental loop. In the pastoral letter, it's suggested that the reason this happens has something to do with the very real love that was once there. The love, in other words, is what makes the loop, and ultimately the entanglement. As it's a Christian article by a Christian pastor, it has a uniquely Christian solution to the problem of bitterness - but it's that the person who is bitter has to see the bitterness (and not, importantly, the violation done to oneself) as the worse of the two problems. In other words, the person has to see their bitterness as the problem, and then go to God seeking the restitution that is found in God's son. Only after a person is reconciled with God because of their own bitterness can they then go to their friend who violated them and speak to them about it. If they don't, they'll only go to them and attack them - on some level, they'll that they can't forgive the person until they've sought forgiveness themselves for their bitterness. I guess, for me, that was really a radical idea - that I could only forgive after being made able to forgive by being forgiven.

Well, I wondered if Kobe-Shaq had something similar, to be honest, because it mentions that when Kobe arrived at the NBA out of high school, Shaq more or less took him under his wing and served as mentor to him. The NBA is a mystery to me, so I don't know if there's literally a mechanism by which new players are mentored by older players or what, but at the least it was suggested that they had a genuine relationship. I wonder if this feud of theirs isn't rooted, though, in what was once a genuine friendship. Of course, one data point and I'm telling myself that they're bitter and need to experience forgiveness for their own bitterness, but like I said, since reading that article, I rush to that conclusion all the time.

Very Sweet

Just saw this on Digg. Very sweet. I kind of cried a little at the 5-6 minute mark.


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First Reviews are In

Peter Travers of the Rolling Stone gives the first review (that I've seen) of The Dark Knight and goes ape-crap over it (pardon my french). He gives it 3 1/2 stars, but the review reads more like a 4 star, so I'm not sure what it would've taken to push the movie over that half a ledge exactly, but probably not much. There's probably some mild spoilers in here, but I read it anyway. The spoilers are pretty modest to non-existent, and reference more of the mood of the characters than anything substantive. Nonetheless, Travers throws out the possibility of a posthumous Oscar for Heath Ledger, who he says is absolutely brilliant and memorable in his role as Joker. Comparisons are made to Kubrick's Clockwork Orange for Ledger and Pacino in The Godfather for Christian Bale, and then to Michael Mann's Heat for Nolan himself. Sounds like great company, and I'm really looking forward to it getting here. July 18 is still a long way away, though.
Last night, some friends introduced us to Gary Vaynerchuk, director of operations of Wine Library. He's got a new book and here he is below speaking at Google. I am absolutely enamored and in love with this guy. Check him out.

Space Collisions

This is a pretty exciting article about a new paper coming out in Nature regarding what scientists now believe happened to Mars 4 billion years ago. They speculate that a Pluto-sized object hit Mars and created the crater that is the Mars lowlands, which is also the largest crater in the solar system. This, though, was really interesting and the first I'd heard the theory (though I don't know much about scientific theories of planets, so that doesn't mean much).
About the same time, more than four billion years ago, Earth is believed to have been hit by a Mars-size object, which created the Moon, and signs of a giant impact have also been detected on Mercury.
If that's true, what a fortunate event, for if my 5-year-old memory serves me correctly, the moon's gravity plays an integral role in the Earth's ocean's tides.

Wall-E Getting Glowing Reviews

Kirk Honeycutt at the Hollywood Reporter thinks Wall-E is Pixar's best film yet. Pretty big words, so if true, the movie will truly be a spectacular experience.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Spiderwick Chronicles (3.5 out of 4 stars)

I agree with Ebert's rating of the 2008 children's movie, Spiderwick Chronicles. We watched it last night for "summer family movie night" - a new ritual begun by my wife involving myself, her, my 6year old son, and 2 1/2 year old daughter. Each week, we get to pick the movie for the week, and this week it was my turn. I went to Blockbuster, unsure of what to rent, and saw a commercial for SC. Then I found the movie on the rack, and saw Ebert's writings quoted on the cover (always a good sign - maybe the best sign, depending on what they chose to reproduce). It said something like, "Great Entertaining Movie for the Whole Family." So I rented it, sight unseen.

For the most part, the family agreed. The only thing I wish I would've paid closer attention to was the PG rating on the back that specified the movie had some scary scenes involving CG monsters. Turns out, those made all the difference to both the substance of the story and the scariness of the movie, and because of it my kids both loved the movie and were scared to death by the many scenes involving ogres and goblins. But as my son told me this morning, "I didn't have any nightmares last night!" it looks like we dodged the bullet. So, I probably would say that if you have kids who are 6 or younger, maybe forego this movie with them, but it is a good one.

The movie is interestingly about a few different things. On the one hand, it's a fantastical movie about a family of four - a recent divorcee and her three adolescent children aged roughly 9 (boy twins) and 13 (older sister) - who leave New York City because, we later learn, the father has left the mother for another woman. They don't have anywhere to live, and because NYC is so expensive, they go to live in a rural area probably still in New York (though I'm just guessing) where the mother has inherited a dilapidated and thoroughly spooky house from her aging great-aunt Lucy. Lucy has been committed to a sanitarium because they found cuts on her arms that looked like some kind of really exotic suicide attempt (you have to see it to see what I mean). She says, though, that it was caused by the goblins, and when you say goblins do something, but they say it looks like suicide - well, that's enough to get you put in the "nuthouse," as one of the boys calls it. Aunt Lucy has lived a hard life, because she saw her father be swept away by fairies, and lived the remainder of her life guarding an important book, which her father wrote, which if it were to fall in the hands of the ogre, would almost certainly result in the deaths of everyone in the world, including humans. Of course, now that she is in the asylum, the youngest boy finds the book, opens it, reads it, and basically sets into motion a series of events that require he and his siblings to get up to speed on the ins and outs of the fantasy world so that they can defeat the ogre before he gets the book and destroys the world.

That's one level of the movie. But there's another level, too. And that's the stories about missing fathers. There are two, maybe three, different ways in which the movie centers the fantasy on the idea of a missing father. First there is Aunt Lucy whose father was literally taken from her by fairies when she was only 6 years old. Second, there is the responsibility that the father has for all of this, because he was so obsessed with the scientific work of cataloguing all the secrets of this fantasy land into a kind of "Field Guide" that he lost sight of the more important things to him, like his wife and daughter. For instance, he had every chance to destroy the book, and in so doing basically eliminate the ogre threat, but his life's work was more important than anyone's safety, so he chose to try and create spells that would just protect the house - by creating a circle around it that couldn't be passed by the goblins, trolls and ogres lurking in the forest. And finally, there is the father who has cheated on his wife and left his family. All of these stories highlight fathers who are selfish about themselves which cause them to abandon their children and wives, in so many different ways, for the sake of some pet object of theirs - be it their work or their lovers. It was tragic to watch and see how the children adapted, and the movie takes on a familiar storyline of the fantasy world basically operating as a device to help the children escape from the tragedy of their situation.

But I'd be lying if this second level to the movie didn't seem like an indictment to me, personally. Being an economist, and an obsessive almost addictive person at that, I wondered if I was like the fathers in the movie - selfish, lost in thought, obsessed with my own work to the exclusion of my family's needs. It was a reflective movie for the adults, particularly fathers and husbands, and a fantastical film for the whole family, as Ebert said. I encourage you to see it, but know that it's also challenging in small, but nonetheless important, ways.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Late Night and Insomnia

I couldn't sleep and so have been watching youtubes for two hours. I found this tragic site while on youtube. It's called FullApologies.com. People (mostly people who were driving during DWI accidents that resulted in someone's death) videotape apologies to people they harmed. The guilt they're carrying is unbearable to watch. It's an interesting way of de-familiarizing drinking and driving - to see the guilt the drivers now carry.

The other thing I found was these youtube sketches about a guy with a high-pitched voice (helium?) named Fred. I'm addicted to them. Here's one.

Biggest Winners and Losers

Some really interesting statistics on here. Did you know that Spiderman 3 had the biggest budget in history (over $258m)? Or that El Mariachi is the number one movie listed with the lowest budget to reach one million dollars (it had a budget of $7,000 and grossed $2m). Or that The Blair Witch Project has the highest return on investment at 354,614.29% (its budget was $35,000 and it went on to gross $248,300,000 worldwide. All very interesting slices of the data.

Disease-Driven Poverty Traps in Rwanda

Matt Bonds, former postdoctoral fellow at Columbia's Earth Institute, reports on his experiences in Rwanda. I quote just one paragraph to give readers and idea, but you may want to read the entire thing.
If there is a single lesson I’ve learned from working on the ground with the MVP, it is that the problems addressed by the sustainable development community (disease, conflict, population growth, land and water scarcity, etc.) take a lot of intellectual work to comprehend in the West, but are often devastatingly obvious in much of the poor world. Certain debates (like those over trade-offs between economic growth and environmental conservation that pit economists against ecologists in the U.S., for example, or those over whether population growth is economically good or bad) can be highly misguided and often falsely dichotomous when applied to underdeveloped countries. In areas of extreme poverty, like parts of Rwanda, where nearly the entire population subsists directly off of its finite land holdings, economics is clearly driven by the relationships between people and their environment. People rely on fertile soils and reliable sources of water, while human population growth necessarily increases per capita consumption of resources. Aside from resource conservation and management, a critical part of the solution is a more diverse set of inputs (facilitated by free markets and trade), which is a paradigm too often decried as neo-liberal ideology. The most fundamentally important resource of all that social, political, and natural scientists of many stripes can agree on is healthy labor. This makes basic healthcare a particularly high priority for sustainable economic development.
Matt is an interesting guy. He got his PhD in Economics, then jumped over and got his PhD in Ecology, then got a prestigious postdoc with Jeffrey Sachs at Columbia. Now he's an assistant professor at Harvard, last I heard.

Seinfeld Writes Carlin's Obit

When someone famous that I knew about, but didn't know very much about, dies, it's interesting to learn how important he was when people who I do know a lot about write about that person (wow - is that grammatically correct?). Seinfeld offers some recollections about his importance, both to American stand-up comedy and to Jerry himself, in today's NYT. The closing paragraph offers up Seinfeld's version of Carlin's version of life after death.
I know George didn’t believe in heaven or hell. Like death, they were just more comedy premises. And it just makes me even sadder to think that when I reach my own end, whatever tumbling cataclysmic vortex of existence I’m spinning through, in that moment I will still have to think, “Carlin already did it.”

Break to the Middle

Now that the ugly Democratic primary is over, Obama can finally get into his strategy for winning, which is to race to the center, and apparently that is maybe happening now. It's good to know the median voter theorem is still relevant, as it's really the only public choice model I remember anymore.

Chris was Right

Chris Blattman leads his post with "Trust me you'll like it" and he's right. I did. And you will too. (Is it redundant to now also say HT: Chris Blattman?)


Where the Hell is Matt? (2008) from Matthew Harding on Vimeo.

Amazon Tribe a Hoax


I had a feeling that this was a hoax. I mean, it is a real tribe in the Amazon, but the photographer says now we've known of the tribe's existence since the early 1900s. He just wanted to bring to everyone's attention the dangers of logging.

Fainting is Apparently Quite Common at Weddings

Bush's Strengths are his Stubborn Unwillingness to Listen to Others?

Not exactly, but that's kind of what David Brooks almost ends up saying in his latest op-ed piece. He points out no one wanted the surge, but Bush pushed for anyway, and actually got it right. It turns out to have been a successful strategy. And what do we have to thank for it? Brooks says we can and should thank Bush's stubbornness. Oh and Dick Cheney.
Bush is an outrageously self-confident man. Well, without that self-confidence he never would have overruled his generals.

In fact, when it comes to Iraq, Bush was at his worst when he was humbly deferring to the generals and at his best when he was arrogantly overruling them. During that period in 2006 and 2007, Bush stiffed the brass and sided with a band of dissidents: military officers like David Petraeus and Raymond Odierno, senators like John McCain and Lindsey Graham, and outside strategists like Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute and Jack Keane, a retired general.

Bush is also a secretive man who listens too much to Dick Cheney. Well, the uncomfortable fact is that Cheney played an essential role in promoting the surge. Many of the people who are dubbed bad guys actually got this one right.

Million

I can't figure out how to embed this clip, so just go over to it and learn about the ambitious new "Million" project being rolled out in the New York schools. Apparently, preliminary data shows the program to be having shortrun positive effects on student performance.

Case-Shiller Index Fell Over 15% in April

Dang.
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, less than forecast, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001.
From the frying pan and into the fire. This correction is becoming severe. With falling incomes due to this recessionary shock, plus the market doing so poorly and housing prices continuing to drop, and on top of that food and energy prices escalating the way they are, who knows how bad it's going to be. For the poorest people in the country, many of them are foreclosing, losing jobs, and seeing their incomes dwindling as the share of their budget devoted to food and energy climbs. Such hard times ahead.

Film Reviewing Lessons by Ebert

Roger Ebert reviews Triumph of the Will, the Nazi propagandist film considered by many to be a masterpiece, and in the process gives us some advice on how to study movies.
That's the approach I long used in the "shot-by-shot" film analysis sessions that I conducted annually for more than 30 years at the Conference on World Affairs at the University of Colorado, and also for many assorted years at the Hawaii, Virginia, and other festivals, and in classes at the University of Chicago. I recommend the approach to any film enthusiast. The film teaches itself to you.

I began in about 1970, on the advice of John West, a Chicago film exhibitor, teacher and historian. "You know how coaches use a stop-action 16mm projector to go through game films?" he asked. "Do the same thing with a feature movie. You don't stop after every frame, of course, but you stop at anything interesting, and discuss it, and you can back up and look at it a frame at a time."

This I did, to begin with, during U of C classes. The rules were simple: Anyone in the audience shouted out "Stop!" and we did, and discussed why they wanted us to stop. Beginning with Hitchcock, who remains the most fruitful director for such analysis, I worked my way over the years through the work of Welles, Bunuel, Bergman, Herzog, Truffaut and many others. I found that with a large group, there would always be one member with the expertise to settle the question at hand: A Hungarian speaker, for example, or a psychiatrist, or a specialist on Japanese medieval history. The Colorado groups often numbered 1,000 students and locals, and over the years we formed a community.

Of course the introduction of the laserdisc, and later the DVD, made this process infinitely easier.

New in the Mail

Today, coming to work, I saw A Very Short Introduction: HIV/AIDS, by Alan Whiteside in my mailbox. It cost me just under ten bucks, but I'd forgotten I'd ordered it. I bought it for a new project - one that has been pushed back - and am hoping it is as good a primer as I'd wanted. Table 3, though, wasn't as carefully done as I'd hoped. It lists the different transmission rates by sexual contact, and compresses "male to male transmission" into one category, when normally I've seen it separated into "anal receptive intercourse" and "anal insertive intercourse." This is a better way of explaining it to me, because this focuses the transmission rate on a specific kind of act, and not merely a gendered pairing, for which there are numerous acts. For instance, "male-to-female transmission" is also listed by itself, but anal receptive intercourse for a female is, I think, comparable in risk to that of a male participating in anal receptive intercourse. So, if there are practices which are variable by, for instance, area of the country, ethnicity or even places in the world, then the "male-to-female transmission" isn't all that helpful. For instance, it would be nice to also see this broken down by countries in Africa, as I've seen male-to-female transmission rates reported in Africa which are hundreds of times higher than that of rates reported in the United States, which makes one wonder if sexual acts differ in African countries than here among heterosexual pairings. Again, maybe not, but risk of infection should be identified with the specific sexual act, and not simply the proximate gender pairings, since it's not the gendered pairings that gives the risk, but rather, the sexual acts correlated with those pairings (like anal sex and homosexuality).

Still, this looks useful and is probably a decent primer. I look forward to reading it.

Cookie Monster Betrayal

Hattip to CB.

Two Checks

I got a second economic stimulus in the mail yesterday. At least, I think I did. The first one I got several months ago and was directly deposited into my account when I filed electronically. At least, I thought it was in there. THen I got a second one yesterday. I'm sick over having to call the IRS and give them $2100 back. Maybe they'll tell me to keep it so I can stimulate the economy!

Monday, June 23, 2008

Another Bike Wreck

Day One of commuting, I ran over a bunch of sticks, and one limb went up in my spokes causing me to get thrown over the handlebars and breaking the fork on the front wheel. I finally got it fixed, and today rode in again to work. On the way home, not 100 yards from the house, I was passing a house when a huge dog started barking at me, and rammed his head through the fence, breaking one of the board (or either having had broken it already). It completely terrified me and I crashed my bike again. After I wrecked, and after wanting to kill the dog who continued to bark and stick his ginormous head through the fence, I started to ride off, and realized something I'd always thought about but never articulated. When you ride your bike on a road in which there is (a) a sidewalk and (b) a lip separates the road from the sidewalk (a kind of either lip up or lip down), and (c) you're riding on a road that is already kind of narrow and not necessarily for bike riding, there's a tendency to kind of get paranoid about getting hit and so ride really close to the lip or the sidewalk. But then doing that, you can get into this weird psychological equilibrium where your arms and hands get paralyzed and you're terrified to turn your handlebars for fear you'll hit the lip and crash. So you ride like a freak, sort of, in this obsessive straight line, scared to death that the smallest little movement will end up killing you, as you can't quite turn your handlebars. So what should you do, and is that even called something?

The Happening Closing in on the Black

J's wife said she saw The Happening over the weekend, despite having the chance to see Get Smart. We all agreed she should've called us for advice, since she lacked the appropriate ex ante information to know how much the world hates it, but I think we were all at the same time kind of happy that one of us had seen it and could tell us what it was like. Turns out, it's as bad as the world says it is. But the good news for Mr. Shyamalan is that it's closing in on its $60 million budget. It brought down another $10 million this weekend, bringing it within striking distance of the black, and pretty much guaranteeing that the movie was worth being made. That's good for Mr. Shyamalan, as I think the last one did not.

Update: Actually, going through his movies, they all have really modest budgets. For someone who makes something in the vicinity of science fiction, he's got really low budgets. The Sixth Sense had a budget of $40m, but went on to make almost $300m domestically (not counting international revenue or DVD revenue). Unbreakable did worse, but still squeezed out a profit, and had a budget of $75m. Signs had a $72m budget, but made $227m domestically (again, excluding int'l and DVD). The Village had $60m budget, but made $115m domestically. The Lady in the Water, which bombed, still didn't do too bad by movie standards. It had a $70m budget, but only made $42m domestically (but made $72m internationally). I'm just guessing, but I bet the typical movie has far worse losses than that.

Which says to me two things. First, Shyamalan's movies have modest budgets, and so very high returns on investment. Two, he appears to be pretty bankable - even when his movies tank, they still manage to squeeze out small profits. He's operating in a genre (sci-fi, fantasy, mystery) which is in the best position to be massively successful for a studio, if he hits gold, which is probably why they give him a chance. So, the downside for them is the movie does poorly, but because they're cheap, not too bad. But if it does hit, it's a huge ROI for them.

What GTAIV Will Make You Do

The idea that video games and explicit media content are a threat to society is demonstrably false. Whatever evidence there might be that violent media content causes violent behavior, or that graphic sexual content stimulates unhealthy sexual behavior, there is a simple test that invariably proves otherwise. Buy the game and then take some time to play it over the next few days or weeks — however long you feel is necessary for a proper test (keep in mind that Grand Theft Auto IV involves at least 25 hours of narrative development, more if you actually decide to play the game instead of just following along with the story).

After you're done, ask yourself a few straightforward questions: Do you want to go outside and steal a car? Do you feel the need to obtain a missile launcher? Do you feel like having sex with a stripper? Or, to more accurately represent the sort of reasoning involved in media-effects claims, do you feel that having sex with a stripper is now a real possibility for you?

Blattman's Thoughts on Tsvangirai's Departure

All very helpful remarks by Chris Blattman, especially the last paragraph (in bold).
Zimbabwe is not ruled by Mugabe alone--a single man who can be pressured to step down or be bought off. It is run by a cabal. A cabal of businessmen, politicians, and military men. Their days are numbered if Mugabe goes, and they will do anything necessary to keep him in power. If the international community wants a peaceful transition from power, it needs to consider how to buy off or protect the thugs surrounding Mugabe, as well as Mugabe himself. Otherwise, prepare for a fight.

Strongmen like Mugabe, in Africa or not, almost never leave power democratically. In fact, I can't think of any examples offhand. Transitions to new leaders and new parties usually occur only after the strong man elects to stand down (or dies). Think Moi in Kenya. Tsvangirai undoubtedly knows his African history, and might think that the best he can do is wait for Mugabe to step aside--an act that may be speeded by recent events. Or so we hope.

Peaceful democratic transitions almost never happen quickly, let alone in a single election cycle.

There's a school of thought with a simple proposition: strong democracies are created within. Think the Velvet and Orange Revolutions, for the most glorious examples. By this account, the most the international community can do is to support these popular movements (and their leaders, like Tsvangirai). How to do so effectively, I don't know. Nor, it seems, does anyone else. Iraq has illustrated that external armed regime change is no simple thing. It's also naive, I believe, to think that righteous indignation from the press and foreign offices is appropriate, effective, or enough. Yet it seems to be all we're doing, and all we're after. Some careful and long term thinking, by people who know the region well, is urgently required.

We have short memories. Mugabe's rise to power, his land seizures, and his domestic popularity are due in no small part to the West's (especially Britain's) unwillingness to end colonialism; unwillingness to end white supremacy after the supremacists ended colonialism; and unwillingness to effectively fund land redistribution after revolutionaries valiantly ended white supremacy. That was less than thirty years ago. Little surprise our moral outrage counts for little in the region.

Earth



Lots of photographs of Earth here. Man, we live on a gorgeous world.

Great Catch!

Wow!


Ball Girl Makes Incredible Catch - Watch more free videos

Is Graduate School Outdated?

Penelope Trunk gives seven reasons why graduate school is outdated. They are:
1. Graduate school is an extreme investment for a fluid workplace.
2. Graduate school is no longer a ticket to play.
3. Graduate school requires you to know what will make you happy before you try it.
4. Graduate degrees shut doors rather than open them.
5. If you don’t actually use your graduate degree, you look unemployable.
6. Graduate school is an extension of childhood.
7. Early adult life is best if you are lost.
All interesting, but take it with a grain of salt too. Nowhere does she, for instance, mention anything about wages or the empirical evidence for the returns to schooling. There are, of course, jobs for which the graduate degree is - good or bad - a prerequisite. You can't practice law with a J.D. You can't go very far in economics without a PhD in Economics. You can't be a clergy in many denominations without an M.Div., and so on.

But she is right to point out the opportunity costs. Graduate training has opportunity costs, and depending on your foregone opportunities, those may be very high. Going back to graduate school when you're in your mid-20s may mean sacrificing as much as $40,000-$50,000/year. No matter what they're paying you as a stipend, it won't cover those costs. So you only go if the presently discounted expected wage gains compensate you for these sacrifices. That means being studious - look through the literature on the returns to education to find out what that return is, and prayerfully consider your various options. But if you don't have to go to grad school, I strongly encourage you to not go. (Unless you're J, in which case I gave him the hard sell - even enlisting a development economist in my department to help persuade him to do graduate work in economics!).

Home Sweet Home?

Krugman has a great NYT Op-Ed talking about the downsides to home ownership - something we never hear. Well worth a read. This quote was interesting.
And these are not the best of times. Right now, economic distress is concentrated in the states with the biggest housing busts: Florida and California have experienced much steeper rises in unemployment than the nation as a whole. Yet homeowners in these states are constrained from seeking opportunities elsewhere, because it’s very hard to sell their houses.

More on MFI

David Warsh at Economic Principals talks about the Milton Friedman Institute controversy. He also pointed out that this is more like Stanford's Hoover Institute. It seemed to me to be one additional Chicago economics department at Chicago - to go along with the Harris School and the GSB - but he's right, it is more like the Hoover Institute. He writes:
Nor is it surprising that plans for a Friedman Institute have struck sparks. The very name calls to mind The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution on Peace, established in 1919 as a research institute on the campus of Stanford University by alumni Herbert Hoover, who later became the thirty-first president of the United States. For many years, the Hoover Institution served mainly as a center for scholarly research amid the rich collection of European documents – and the occasional Russian refugee – that Hoover brought home from his tour as relief administrator after World War I. Its relative autonomy within the university was symbolized by its garish tower at the center of the Stanford campus.
I have a hard time understanding academic politics, and tend to think of these things very privately. I'm sure there are many issues at play. Warsh notes things like the gentrification of the divinity school closer towards the ghetto-y areas around Hyde Park, and also that this really benefits economics to the exclusion of all the other departments. That point is hard to quantify, but I can see in a real sense how that is the case. But is it really an overstatement to say that the University of Chicago is indebted to the legacy of Milton Friedman, far more than it is indebted to any other person or department within that university? And with what now almost universally understand about not only the failure of socialist planning and the crucial, humane importance of economic and political freedom, is it also not an understatement to say that we probably do not, as a race, owe a tremendous to that great, unwavering soldier for freedom, Milton Friedman? We forget how unfashionable all of his ideas were for so many years, and how with great humor and friendliness, he fought and won argument after argument showing the failure of the socialist state, fighting and winning so many freedoms that are now being enjoyed around the world, and home in the US? The intellectual bankruptcy of the political left has forced a retreat by those intellectuals into the academic departments of the humanities in higher education, and I guess I tend to just reflexively think they are ignorant and naive, if not outrightly evil, when they try to refashion their outdated and falsified modes of human organization and economic arrangement, and so just think without thinking, "Yes, a Milton Friedman Institute at Chicago. Yes, $200 million towards it. Yes. Yes. Yes." I'm sure there is more to it than that, but I tend to believe that if enemies of Milton Friedman were economically literate in the least, they'd chill out.

Walsh, mid-article, has an interesting comparison beyond that of Hoover. Maybe this will be more like MIT's Whitehead than Hoover - more pioneering and scientific than political. There are, after all, two legacies of Milton Friedman. There is Milton Friedman the economist and Milton Friedman the political prophet, and though they sometimes intersect, his scientific work for which he won the Nobel Prize had to do with the permanent income hypothesis and the consumption function. Not really things which might have gotten him a PBS miniseries. But this is Chicago, really. It's simultaneously a place that in the mid-20th century held the ground on classical liberalism and pushed forward in pioneering work in economics. Had it just been the former, it would've been like George Mason has become. But it wasn't just the former, and so has cranked out Nobel laureate after Nobel laureate. Here's what he says in the article:
An alternative interpretation of the perils at hand might recall the history of the Whitehead Institute, named for the instrument manufacturer who in the late 1970s sought to give $100 million for a program of directed biomedical research. Edwin “Jack” Whitehead offered the grant first to Duke University, then to Harvard, but was turned down in each case because of disagreements about who would be in charge. Nobel laureate David Baltimore, of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, then talked the entrepreneur into relaxing the demands for control he had sought; finally, over fierce opposition from a faculty minority, MIT accepted the grant. First under Baltimore, then Eric Lander, the unconventional lab was a brilliant success. Today director David Page compares it to an artists’ colony. “What we do here at Whitehead is… empower maximally creative—really wildly creative—individuals to realize their dreams within these walls,” he says.

Granted, even heavily empirical economics is not molecular biology; but given the series of surprises that have emanated from Chicago in recent years (floating exchange rates, modern finance, new growth theory, D. Gale Johnson’s mission to China, compelling work on the benefits of early childhood intervention), it is not unthinkable that the Friedman Institute might pay off in unexpected ways. Faculty misgivings are sometimes misplaced. (The Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, which routinely describes itself as “founded by Richard O. Ryan MBA ‘66,” loosely resembles the Whitehead model.)

Video Games Causing Kids to Stab Each Other in London

So say we all? No, not so say we all. So says the mayor of London. In other news, the Christians are responsible for the burning of Rome. I'm going to be really sad when the video game industry finally wakes up and realizes that they have to become overtly political and actually start throwing more money at politicians so that they'll leave them alone. How much of this is fear-mongering and how much of this is just plain shake down?

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Gates Steps Down

I'm asleep or something, but Gates is leaving. I just saw this a second ago, but I think now I remember hearing something about it the other day, but remember not being sure I understood and then just forgot about it later.

Team Soulja Boy

J sends me a link to Kanye West's blog that posts the two videos. The first is Ice-T blasting Soulja Boy, saying he singlehandedly destroyed hiphop, and then goes on to say how far hip hop had come only to blow up because of Soulja Boy's song. Then Soulja Boy comes back at him. His response starts out like this:
“This nigga Ice-T is old as fuck. This nigga old enough to be my grandfather. He’s the forefather of my nuts. I Wikipedia’d this nigga, he was born in 1958. This nigga says he’s from the west coast, nigga, you was born in New Jersey! Mr. Tracy Lauren Morrow, you was born three centuries ago, my nigga.”
Kanye comes to Soulja Boy's rescue, and now I feel kind of cheap that I'm only now saying something, since it takes much less courage to be on Team Soulja Boy after Kanye West takes the first step. But I'm with Kanye on this. My main inclination is to support anyone who is financially successful, because financial success in music is statistically so rare as to be impossible. So this kid put something together that was really valuable to a lot of people, and I respect that personally. But, two, what's the big deal? The guy writes several songs that people like, which means there is currently most likely a very large market for this certain kind of music. But it seems to me that it speaks to rap and hip-hop's vitality and flexibility that it can have so much diversity - people like him, Eminem, Lauryn Hill, Pharrell Williams, Kanye West, Nas, A Tribe Called Quest, Beastie Boys, Lupe Fiasco, 50 Cent, Snoop, etc. That's not even the slice of the iceburg. The genre is just so mature that it can have so many different tribes of music within it, and engender music that supports a range of the human experience, that no single musician or style dominates it anymore. Here's what Wikipedia says is the secret to Soulja Boy's success, incidentally.
Critics and hip-hop figures such as Snoop Dogg, 50 Cent, and Jermaine Dupri cite Soulja Boy as artistically typical of contemporary rap trends such as writing for the lucrative ringtone market, and the ascendence of "Southern hip hop", emphasizing catchy, mindless music that discards rap's traditional emphasis on message. Soulja Boy identifies his goal as making upbeat, party-themed music that avoids the negative, violent image that he sees in most hip-hop.
Here's the last thing I'll say about Soulja Boy. At Christmas this year, my 13-year-old niece taught my 62-year-old mom how to do the "Crank Dat" dance, and then my mom, me, my wife, my sister, and my 13-year-old niece commenced to do the dance in the kitchen for about a half-hour. Why can't this just be what it is? Fun.

The Art of Terrorist Tracking

Long, but well-written and interesting throughout.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Can You Change What You Don't Love?

Seth Roberts says no. Or rather, he says Elizabeth Pisani says no. OR maybe he's saying Jane Jacobs says no. Whoever it is, I'm pretty sure Seth agrees with one of them that you can't change things if you don't love it.

Or maybe it's just that you/me/we don't have any business getting involved with things we don't love. Maybe we can never change anything, but the necessary condition to even touch them is that we love them. (h to the hitto, t to the teo, mp)

Get Smart

Ebert gave Get Smart a great review (3.5 stars). But if you go to Metacritic, it's really getting average reviews (53). Mal Vincent at The Virginian Plot was the first negative review I'd read, and then I went to check out metacritic and saw that Ebert was the outlier, or at least the upperbound. So FYI. I still want to see it, though.

Which brings me to my excellent metric for determining ex ante whether I want to see a movie I'd never heard of. If I'm at Blockbuster, walking around, and a movie catches my eye, I look for the reviews. Of course, 99% of the time, it's got rave reviews. So I simply look for who wrote the reviews. If it's Jeff Craig from 60 Second Preview, and that's featured front and center, you know it's going to be the worst movie you've ever seen. I mean, you know it. Ebert once asked, “Has anyone ever actually seen Jeff Craig of ‘Sixty Second Previews’ at a movie? For that matter, does anyone know what ‘Sixty Second Previews’ is? I ask in all sincerity.” NPR tried to find him once, too. So if you see this guy, run.

Which gets to my metric. If a company has a bunch of reviewers, and they choose to pick obscure critics, then it's obviously horrible. Another metric is if they pick known film critics, but only post things like "Nicholas Cage does some of the best acting he's done in years" or something like that. That the best they can say is that the actor is doing a good job, and not that the movie is a good story, is another clear sign that it's a bad movie. (Okay, gotta run. There's a bug in the house and kids are freaking out).

Peggy Noonan's Rising Star

I was trying to come up with a catchy title of the blogpost to describe this interesting article about Peggy Noonan. It describes her own "intellectual journey," if I can use an overused phrase, from her youth, to her lack of interest in the protest movement of the 60s, to working for CBS and winning the respects of people like Dan Rather, despite her ideological conservativism, to serving in the Reagan administration as a speechwriter, to her now disillusionment with the Bush administration, and her growing popularity among the Obama crowd. Some of it is because she wrote scatching books against Hilary Clinton, which now turned out to be coincidentally appropriate for the times. She's branded an intellectual independent, and I think that makes her a fitting voice in this 2008 campaign. Here's an interesting description of life in the Reagan administration, and how she thinks it's so different from the Bush administration mileu (plus some of her own eccentricities for color).
"The White House I lived through was an abattoir," Noonan says, taking a sip of water. "There was blood on the floors. Everybody fought. They undercut each other, they tried to remove each other from the meeting. But the argument was held every day, and it went to the president every day, and things got adjudicated. That's the way it ought to be if you're serious. One of the things I have not liked in the past two administrations is this extraordinary inner-house awe for their president. You know, I loved Reagan, but he was a man and he was flawed and I wrote about that in my first book. I am astonished that the Bush people are so robotic. I am astonished that if you ever criticize your guy, he will banish you from the kingdom.

Of course, it's worth pointing out that most of Noonan's "fights" at the White House were not with her "guy," but with the holdovers from the previous two administrations. Noonan not only agreed with the president on the economy and the Soviet Union, she shared in his predilection for rhetoric that connected the administration's policies to the will of God. And she, like Reagan, believed in strange, mystical things.

When Noonan was in high school, she had a dream the night before Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated. As she wrote in her 1990 memoir, "Things I Saw at the Revolution": "I saw Abraham Lincoln in Ford's Theatre. He was sitting in a box and suddenly a shadow came from behind and Lincoln turned to look and there was a sharp retort and he slumped in his chair. But the moment before he was shot, I saw his face and he was black."

Shortly thereafter came another foreboding premonition about the murder of Bobby Kennedy. "

Political Songs

1. NYT seemed to give a little lukewarm response to a recent REM show.

2. Picked up Lil Wayne's new album, The Carter III, which is getting great reviews (see here and here). Certain songs I love, certain songs I don't. Only listened to it once, though, so maybe I'll change my tune later. But one song that really made me laugh was "Misunderstood" (see embedded link below). In it, Lil Wayne surprised me by a political rant against someone I was not expecting. Check it out.

Renting on the Rise

Home ownership rates fall as renting rises. This ain't necessarily a bad thing. We subsidize the crap out of housing and forget that renting is optimal for many people. Since many people were speculating in housing and the gains were illusory, too, the problem of black-white wealth gaps still exist.
For many minority and lower-income families who viewed homeownership as a stepping stone to building wealth and passing it on to their children, the transition from owning to renting has been the unraveling of a dream. Burdened now by debt and bad credit, some of these families are worse off than they were before they bought.

“The bloom is off of homeownership,” said William C. Apgar, a senior scholar at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University who ran the Federal Housing Administration from 1997 to 2001. “We’re seeing more dramatic growth in renters and a decline in the number of owners. People are beginning to understand that homeownership can be a very risky venture.”

Mr. Apgar said the Joint Center had predicted an increase of 1.8 million renters from 2005 to 2015, given expected population trends. Instead, they saw a surge of 1.5 million renters from 2005 to 2007 alone. In the first quarter of this year, 35.7 million people were renting homes or apartments, census data show.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Sex Markets: Denied Industry?

There's a new book coming out entitled Sex Markets: A Denied Industry by three European economists named Maria Di Tommaso, Steinar Strom, and Maria Laura Di Tommaso. I just finished reading the forthcoming Journal of Population Economics article of theirs entitled "Who's Watching? The Market for Prostitution Services", and learned a ton from it. I think the book is mainly a book-length treatment of the model. For instance, the table of contents is listed as:
Part 1: Studying Prostitution
1.1. Conceptualising Prostitution
1.2. Social Sciences and Prostitution
1.3. Economics and Prostitution

Part 2: A Reputation Approach to Prostitution
2.1. The Demand Side
2.2. The Supply Side
2.3. Equilibrium
2.4. The Market for Prostitution when Norms are Endogenous
2.5. Different Markets and Policies

Part 3: Empirical Application
3.1. The Demand Side: Clients of Street Sex Workers in the US
3.2. A Specific Segment of the Supply Side: Sexually Exploited Trafficked Women
Part 2 is essentially what looks like their "Who's Watching?" paper. Part 3 appears to be partly what is also recently published in their 2008 Applied Economics paper, "What Money Buys: Clients of Street Sex Workers in the US". Section 3.1 is probably just a reworked version of that paper. Part 3.2 looks new, and extremely valuable, given what I learned about international sex trafficking the other day from this DOJ report. Parts 1 are probably just a history of prostitution and a literature review.

The economic theory of prostitution that they put forth is really cool. It's very simple, but at the same time, I think dead on. Another theory of prostitution put forth in 2002 by Edlund and Korn emphasizes that female prostitutes are highly-paid, low-skill, labor intensive workers (which is something of a paradox), and argues that they receive such high payments to compensate them for their foregone marital opportunities. That is, prostitutes and wives are mutually exclusive (though Arunachalam and Shah find that that is not actually true empirically). Della Guista, et al. (2008) basically model prostitution demand and supply as a function of reputation, noting that prostitution bought/sold incurs reputational costs to the person. They then work out the first order conditions for sellers and buyers, and show the optimal amount of prostitution to be bought/sold assuming any is bought/sold in the first place, and then include a nice section in which social norms are endogenous to the amount of prostitution bought/sold in the market at all. The mathematics to make social norms endogenous was really simple, and I was kind of impressed that they managed so much with so little. Basically, they have a reputation function in the model in which a person receives some "net reputation" which is equal to their own "reputational capacity" minus the amount of prostitution they solicit/sell. To make social norms endogenous, they simply make that person "reputational capacity" equal to the amount of prostitution bought/sold in the market, which means that as prostitution increases, one's own reputational capacity increases, and in this model, the higher one's reputational capacity, the more one can "afford" to buy/sell prostitution. It may not sound like much, but it means that the buying/selling of prostitution has social externalities because it affects other people's own standards. If I told you that they lifted that part of the model from a 1980 Akerlof paper on identity and standards, would you be surprised? I wouldn't, and wasn't, and they did.

All in all, I think the paper makes a real breakthrough. I'm kind of surprised that it was only published in the Journal of Population Economics, to be quite honest. Not that that is a bad journal at all, but it wasn't where I would've expected it to be placed. But whatever, I'd take a hit there. So if you're interested in the paper, check it out. Obviously, Edlund and Korn (2002), which emphasizes marital opportunities, is not mutually exclusive to this reputational model, but intuitively, I think when it comes to purchasing sex - whether it be in the form of human beings who offer physical sex, or images of men and women having sex (ie, pornography) - reputation and stigma play a significant role in the decision calculus, and so it's helpful to have a model that formalizes this basic intuition.

Upon Stumbling into the Ladies' Restroom

"True, it did smell sort of like someone had farted into a bowl of potpourri, and those metal boxes full of used "sanitary napkins" made me gag, but compared to the men's room I thought I'd stumbled into a recently-evacuated harem of Kublai Khan's pleasure dome."
Read the rest. It's on how having a little girl, and being forced to take her into public restrooms, changed his life. This part, where she's finally too old to go into the boy's room with him anymore, was priceless.
"She refused to line up behind the scouts. Everything had come to a head.

No one had gone in or out of the women's lavatory for quite some time. "See that door?" I said softly. "When you go inside, you're not going to realize it's a bathroom, but it is: I promise you. I need you to go inside, find a toilet, and close the door. Then I want you to go potty like a big girl. And wash your hands, okay?"

"Okay, Pops," she replied.

"I love you," I said, holding the door for her, watching as she disappeared beyond the gilded vanities into a fog of myrrh, lost to me now in a land of rainbows and sparkling porcelain where flatulence is as delicate as the fluttering of fairy wings and only the faint sound of a unicorn braying hints that someone inside might be struggling to empty her colon."

Kids Shifting from TV to Internet

One study finds American teens are spending more time online than watching TV.

Brothels are not Recession-Proof

Who knew? But apparently, Nevada brothels are feeling the pinch from the economy, and revenues are down because of the recession and rising energy prices (which affect truckers and other lonely men on the road). One brothel is offering a special buy-one-get-one-free deal if you spend your economic stimulus package at their business. (Insert joke about "stimulus" here).