Obama's Stock Continues Falling

Man, this freaking election is not going the way I thought it was going. The Palin pick may be turning out to have been the clearest sign that McCain is playing for keeps. Check out the movements in the last two weeks of the Obama contract. It sat at the historically stable estimate of 61 for what felt like 9-10 months, and then with Palin's announcement as VP, it's been steadily falling, like a helium balloon slowly leaking air.

Today it's at 54.8. McCain is at 44.8 (up 5 points from roughly 39, where he sat also for 9-10 months). This is, mind you, even with the information that the Fed is seizing control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - an event that was probably already factored in the stock price of the two candidates when it was first announced by Paulson in mid-July.

Is this all related to Palin? They said that the first five days of her announcement as VP was going to be the real test. It turns out she's an exciting candidate that has re-energized McCain's campaign, and Obama's camp is clearly worried. But, my gut tells me that those historical estimates from months back are probably going to come back and reign supreme. The RNC ended last Thursday, so it'll be interesting too to see if they can maintain this ground. I'm still putting my money on Obama, but now I'm more comfortable at taking slightly lower odds.