Political Prediction

I predict Austrian economics is going to become very interesting to people again over the next four years. Already, there is an enthusiasm among conservatives to return to their base and core principles. That ultimately is going to benefit Austrians, who arguably form those core principles. At its core, the Republican party is Hayek's party. When in power, it's not of course, because of the median voter theorem. But when out of power, they'll return to the Austrian water and reflect. I chalk this up to the purification that occurs when the candidate at the median is not your candidate. There's a strong temptation, if you're ideologically committed, to look the other way when your guy is in power, and to become laser-focused when he is not. That's why the last eight years were so good for Democrats, imo. They thrived during the Bush administration. His every misstep and perceived tyrannies gave them strength. He was the yellow sun to their Superman. It's funny how it works, but I think it does work that way. The median voter theorem takes the candidate away from his base, to the median in some policy space. That necessarily means he must leave his base, who is anything but median in commitment and perspective. So they are quiet or they are angry, but they are not enthusiastic whatever they are. But for the other side, it's a good thing to be out of power. It creates unity among the base. They have an enemy again, and he's not their own President (finally!). It never ends, though. If you think the median voter theorem has some deep insights in it, then it will just constantly cycle back and forth. So again, my prediction is Austrian writers will do well right now. While out of power, Republicans will start to reflect again, and that will ultimately take them back to the purists, like Hayek. It'll be the Chomsky's who suffer eventually declining sales over this new administration.