Friday, November 7, 2008

Geez

Unemployment is at 6.5%, up from 6.1% a month ago, and at a 14-year high. If you were forecasting just based on this trajectory, you wouldn't be crazy to think it might actually reach 8% by February or March. This is definitely turning out to be worse than the 2001 recession, and likely worse than the 1992 recession. The question is whether it'll be worse than the 1982/1983 when Volcker cut the money supply to kill climbing inflation. Unemployment almost reached 10% in that one. Hopefully, it does not come to that this time.

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