McCain up to 52.9

Well, the unbelievable is happening. McCain isn't behind at inTrade, and he's not in a statistical dead heat. At least for the morning of Friday, Sept. 12th, after Sarah Palin's first real sit down last night on Charles Gibson, McCain has pushed ahead. At this writing, it's 52.9. Did not see this coming. I still think it's going to go to Obama, but inTrade says I'm in the small minority among better for the moment. I expect debates to skew Obama back up, but at this point, who knows - it's anyone's guess who will win. (If McCain wins, there may be some rioting in the streets though).


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Here's what we can see happening from the last two days.

Date Open Low High Close Volume
7-Sep-08 42.35 41.1 43 42.1 2745
8-Sep-08 41 41 46 43.5 15004
9-Sep-08 44 43.7 50.5 45.1 27007
10-Sep-08 46.4 45 49.5 47.4 12255
11-Sep-08 46.3 45.9 51.4 49.8 29642
12-Sep-08 48.5 48.3 52 50.5 8539

In other words, opening prices have been ticking up on the McCain futures gradually over the week. Trading was highest yesterday, and before that, on the 9th. A 9/11 effect, maybe? Haven't heard anyone suggest that possibility, but one might presume that 9/11 would help McCain more than it would help Obama, since McCain has rooted his election campaign in the war on terror and 9/11. We see that yesterday, prices reached their highest of the week, roughly 9/10ths of a point above the 9/8 level, but closing at a deadheat. Today, though, we have the week's high.

So, I'm going to venture a hypothesis. This push ahead is due to the impact that 9/11, as an American memory. I'm not sure how to test the hypothesis exactly. Other things happened yesterday, too - like the Gibson interview with Palin.