New Hampshire

I took the state contracts from inTrade from August 31st and lined then up with the electoral votes for 2008, unemployment rates, foreclosure rates, and the 2000-2004 outcomes. This morning (Sept. 7), I took the latest data. In other words, I have pre- and post-RNC state contracts from InTrade. This morning, I put it all into one spreadsheet so I could see where the change in McCain/Obama's expected chances was coming from. As far as I can see, four of the five swing states became even more swingier after the RNC. Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio all appear to be, as of the first of this week, to be more or less toss-ups. New Hampshire is still solidly skewed in Obama's favor, and all that Obama has to do is win the other states in his pocket (predicted at 60+ prices - my personal arbitrary cutoff) and New Hampshire to win it all. That New Hampshire has a contract of roughly 55, and the national contract is moving around 55, makes me think that New Hampshire could be deciding this election.