Saturday, August 30, 2008

Are you experienced?

Ash Blog Durbatuluk (wow, that's a mouthful) has some really interesting analysis about the whole "inexperience" arguments that will have to be navigated by both sides thanks to Palin. It's true that Obama's team is going to have a hard time making the inexperience argument against Palin, since it highlights his own inexperience. But, now McCain's side is having the same problem. Selecting Palin harms his ability to make that argument. Yet he still chose her - undoubtedly his strategists realized the challenges it would create on that front.

What I suspect is the case is that Obama's inexperience doesn't even seem material to a lot of people. This race is run on the recession, the ending of the war, and on Obama's celebrity-like attraction. He has the appearance of John F. Kennedy, who was equally inexperienced but remembered as one of the great ones. So probably, pushing the inexperience argument may have had limited traction for McCain's group in the first place. In these swing states, like Virginia, it's also probably not going to be pure charm that will make all that much difference either. The recession matters there more than most places (this contraction is heterogeneous across states) and the middle class tax cuts is going to feel particularly good.

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