The point about the efficient market hypothesis is that you can't make any money in the longrun betting on individual stocks, since all the information available to anyone is already captured in the stock price. So you also can't expect to make any money by gambling on futures at inTrade either. That may not be totally true in this case, since maybe if you have some connection to the Obama campaign, you make have some information that you could use. After all, no one regulates inside trading on these kinds of things, so technically, the information component is different. Nonetheless, the point of my post is that it's not looking like good for her VP chances. Yesterday I reported she was getting around 25 points. Twenty-four hours later it's down to 15. You can't quite see the steep fall, or at least not very well, in this graph, but it's there at the end. Tomorrow it'll be a little clearer. Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if she were to get something in this Administration, but maybe not the VP.
No comments:
Post a Comment