1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act

I am constantly learning something new about legislation aimed to curb drug abuse, which is both exciting and frustrating since I always feel like, "Shouldn't I already know this?" Today I learned about the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act. This was the act that, among other things, created a mandatory minimum of five years for simple possession of more than five grams of crack cocaine. Simple possession of any amount of other drug, including powder cocaine, remained a misdemeanor with a 15-day sentence required only for a second offense. It also introduced many of the mandatory minimum sentences that still exist today. If you look at the above graph from the BJS, you can eyeball what appears to happen immediately following the implementation of the act. THis is interesting, because until now, I was just taking it for granted that the increase in drug arrests that you observe from 1986 to 1990 was caused by the crack epidemic, and the violence and burglaries that originated out of it. That may be true, but it may also be an exogenous increase in imprisonment triggered by the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act, and if it is, then maybe one could use that Act to help identify the effect of the war on drugs on some outcome. Like mating markets equilibria or family structure, or even crime itself (if, for instance, Miron's theory about enforcement of drug prohibition causing crime).

Update: Correction. The 5-year mandatory minimum for 5 grams of crack possession was implemented in 1988 with the Omnibus Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988. The 1986 legislation established the bulk of drug-related mandatory minimums, but that specific one came in two years later. But, it does appear to have caused a swelling of prison populations, doesn't it? Which is why Levitt's idea to use overcrowding litigation as a way of identifying the effect of a single prisoner's crime production seems so obvious and ingenious. I can imagine that following 1986's Act, the prison populations simply couldn't keep up with the increased demand for prison space and thus started to exceed their capacity.