Oil

There is no shortage of opinions on the likelihood of a recession. You get the full gamut with Roubini saying we'll end up a devestating depression that lasts six quarters to Jim Hamilton saying things aren't going to be that bad. I like Hamilton. Sensible man, wrote a painful time series textbook that I had to read (damn him). I do think he is generally right that the oil price increases is ultimately a good thing, most likely due to economic growth in the rest of the world, such as India and China, and not supply-side reductions by OPEC, etc. If so, then that would probably explain why we weren't catapulted into a recession when it all started several years ago. Ultimately, growth in the developing world is good for everyone.