Oil, Gold and Inflation Rising

Jim Hamilton opines about whether rising oil prices and rising gold prices is indicative of rising inflation. As always, when I read Hamilton, I'm persuaded - no matter what he's talking, no matter what side he takes. He shows some evidence, like the nominal rates on 10-year treasury bills, that don't seem to signal rising inflation. Of course, if you put a gun to my head, and asked me to find something that showed a sign of rising inflation, then I'd go to some market interest rate, because I may not know much macroeconomics, but I at least know that the real rate of interest is the market rate minus inflation. So, you'd expect inflation to get priced into market interest rates so that real rates of interest remain the same - more or less. Therefore, I believe Hamilton. And if you give me counter-evidence, I won't listen to it, as by then, I'll already have forgotten posting this and have moved on to something else. Hence, this qualifies as a very low order, weakly held belief.